archive: economy

What’s All The Fuss About this New Sheriff at Downing Street?

Thursday, July 15th, 2010

With an British mother and an American father, comparing the US and Great Britain is simply a way a life in my family . . . plus it gives me a bit of street-cred in this department. In this story, in my opinion, the Brits clearly win!

Sunday mornings with Fareed Zakaria on CNN are sacred in my house.  Which basically means that my kids and husband abandon me for that hour.  More often than not, I’m highly tempted to blog about one or two of the topics Fareed covers.  I typically resist, because I rarely disagree with Fareed and over time I’m afraid I might come across as a “Fareed Groupie”, which could tarnish my image of a self-thinking, intelligent, strategic, modern woman.  That said, this week, I am giving into temptation. I simply must blog about this new British government and the 39-year old George Osborne (Chancellor of the Exchequer – Secretary of the Treasury to Americans) whom I found to be slightly pompous (expected), highly intelligent (expected), but unexpectedly refreshing and on-point in his ideas around what people really want from their governments.  I personally, think the US Republican party could take a lot of cues from the new conservative sheriffs at Downing Street.  As an Independent, I actually prefer it when both the Democrats and Republicans are acting wisely as it makes for better candidate options and more solution oriented action.

If you missed the show, it’s easy to watch or listen on demand.  Just click here.

Just to add my own touch to the conversation, and keep up my image, here are the four primary reasons why I like what I heard from Osborne and feel strongly that this is the direction that successful politicians will have to take (regardless of party) to be successful in the future.

Not Afraid to Act

Osborne has pledged to the British people that he will not hide hard choices from them and he will make them.  He has clearly lived up to this campaign promise with his austere budget that is getting a lot of press. He feels strongly that the public wants a government who can admit when there is a real problem, and work quickly to get it fixed.

Proper Leadership

The kicker here is their assumption that the public can and should act as an intelligent deputy to a sheriff who is willing to make and stand behind decisions regardless of which direction the political winds are blowing. This new conservative party clearly recognizes that the British public clearly understands there is a debt problem, and that the country has been living beyond its means for some time, and so they are willing to take it on as their first priority.  They also realize that not only Great Britain, but Europe, requires proper leadership to bolster their image and regain the world’s confidence in their ability to pay their own way.

Collaboration is Not a Death Sentence

Osborne speaks of forming a proper coalition government where the other party holds seats in the cabinet and how the real benefits of diversity in Parliament are less about looking different and more about being different and thinking different.  One of the best statements Osborne makes in Fareed’s interview is, “We can’t abandon whole areas of policy to the Left in British politics.  There is no reason why the Conservative Party should not have a progressive policy on climate change or be interested in issues of poverty and equity in our society and have answers to those issues.”

Open, Open, Open

They are open to new ideas, new views and anyone who can come up with a better way to reach a common goal.  Osborne indicated that he constantly seeks out second opinions and alternative views.  He encourages large numbers of people to come into meetings and say what they want to say, and understands that listening is a large part of the job.  His office recently asked the broader group of public servants for their ideas on how to reduce budgets in a way that doesn’t damage the frontline services people receive.  They received over 65,000 responses in a couple of weeks, and had some of them around to Number 11 Downing Street for a chat recently.  Interactive governement . . . what a concept!

I’ve been saying for years (just ask my friends) that the politicians in the US are simply making things worse and what most people really want is an entirely new breed of politician that is much more suited for the 21st century.  We need politicians who care less about party line and more about solving problems. We need politicians who can explain both sides of an issue, without bias, and why they believe their decision is the best option.  We need politicians who can work with other politicians to get the job done and stop wasting the public’s time and money on petty politics.

As much as I love they way in which this new and refreshing British government is behaving, I would certainly caution them that the best solution in today’s environment is likely a combination of austerity in some areas and stimulus in others.  Because western politicians failed to play the austerity card when times were good, we are all now stuck in a precarious position.  The equation is really quite simple and it works for government, companies, and at home.  When times are good you pay off your debts, make smart investments, and put a little under the mattress for a rainy day.  When times are hard you dig out your mattress money and stretch on credit a little if necessary.  If used responsibly, credit can be a very stabilizing element in an economy.  When abused, as we all now know, credit can backfire as surely as a 1970’s MG.

One of the things I love the most about this new government is the fact that they aren’t letting fear run the show.  They are taking a stance, creating a strategy, and they are willing to listen to other ideas.  The longer we let fear run our households, our businesses, and our politics, the longer this era of uncertainty will linger.  It really is that simple.

Posted in Courage, economy, global, leadership, political, social, strategy | 1 Comment »

Haiti: The Western Hemisphere’s Greatest Potential

Sunday, January 24th, 2010

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This post is dedicated to the tens of thousands of Haitians who have lost their lives; to those who will undoubtedly loose their struggle in the coming weeks; to my friends and colleagues at Aimer Haiti and to the wonderful creative economic development ideas we were working on that now mean more than ever before.  See previous posts for more information on Aimer Haiti.

Globalization is no longer optional for any nation, company, or person in the world, regardless of their beliefs.  The realities of our globally interconnected world are more evident now than ever before given the failures in our global financial systems that are far more intertwined than many realized.  This coupled with the shrinking populations in many developed nations ensures that disasters such as Haiti and other atrocities happening in under-developed countries are everyone’s challenges and everyone’s potential.  It is now in the self-interest of the developed world that these tragedies are tended to and we band together to allow capitalism and democracy to bring people out of poverty creating new and sustainable consumers and markets for everyone to access. It’s no longer optional; and for me that brings hope.

In order for economies to grow, they require something to create an increase . . . more consumers, cheaper inputs, faster production, more products . . . you get the idea.  Until this century, the developed world has been able to primarily rely on their own increases in population, growing middle class, advances in technology, and fierce consumerism to feed the ever-increasing wheel of economic activity.  Take a look around today . . .

  • Populations in many developed countries are decreasing or slowing
  • Consumerism has taken a big hit as many realize debt gone wild is bad and things don’t bring happiness
  • The environment is feeling the effects of careless growth increasing production costs around the world
  • Non-renewable commodities/resources continue on a trajectory of ever growing costs because, well, they are non-renewable
  • Finding cheaper inputs is a strategy of the past, including labor, as the world is realizing its better to pay a decent wage and create a consumer

What does all that mean?  It means that the primary resource of capitalism has moved from capital, to labor, and to knowledge over the past 150 years and is now moving toward Connectivity . . . Stronger, deeper, more trusting, compassionate, and creative connections in every direction imaginable will drive the future.  You can’t touch connectivity.  You can’t buy it.  You can’t even learn it from a textbook, but it can be cultivated and societies are increasingly hungry for it.  Those who can connect the seemingly un-connectable dots in new and inventive ways will win.  Businesses that connect to what their customers and employees value the most will win.  Capitalists that figure out how to connect to and serve the Bottom of the Pyramid will win.  Those who can embrace the connection between failure and success will win.  Those who have the courage to connect to their passion and not to the herd will win. Those who figure out that hording no longer works but collaboration does will win.  Those who learn how to tap into the innate energy that exists in every person to do good in the world will win.  Those who can disconnect from fear and connect to the creativity in courage will win.

The US, Europe, and the rest of the developed world must realize that in order to continue our own standard of living and our own comforts in life we must begin to help other countries build middle classes and become the productive citizens they desire to be.  My hope is that perhaps this tragedy in Haiti can bring light and education to the need for global citizenship and the prosperity it can bring to so many (rich and poor).  We have an opportunity to help Haiti rebuild itself and become a model to be used by other struggling nations.

Changing our outlook and expectations from the short-term to the long-term is key.  Today, liquidity does exist; it just exists with a short-term expectation of return and is invisible to most of us.  So we have what is referred to by some economists as a “wall of liquidity” that is searching the world for immediate arbitrage situations and completely ignoring the long-term opportunities that exist today in many industries and places around the world.  That “wall of liquidity” brings a risk of continued global financial instability as it preys on unlikely places such as Russia where the currency will likely normalize in relation to the USD and EUR and monetary policy has allegedly been mismanaged.  It is critical that we recognize the many unintended consequences of the past and vow not to repeat them in the future.

“The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.”  ~  Theodore Roosevelt

Posted in Courage, Haiti, business, economy, global | 1 Comment »

Rebuilding Haiti – A Unified Strategy

Monday, January 18th, 2010

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When you see the level of response from the US and nations around the world to the tragic earthquake that rocked Haiti only a few days ago, it is hard not to feel proud of the quality of global citizenship displayed by so many.  Individuals and organizations have been sent to help with security, medical care, food distribution, general aid, and journalistic coverage and they should be commended for their commitment to humanity.

However, as an economist who was working on economic development in Haiti before the tragedy, I know that the strategy and model used for rebuilding is the key to success.  Despite good intentions, the developed world does not have the best track record for helping under-developed countries gain any significant traction.  There has never been a lack of funds or good intention, but there has been a lack of effective and unifying strategies designed with the population’s physical and cultural needs in mind.  This unfortunate and tragic earthquake has presented the world and Haiti with an opportunity to set the rebuilding of Haiti on a course that will have long term significance for its people, if we are all willing to try something new and think about building sustainable economies with a new perspective.

There are a number of areas that will obviously require simultaneous focus, however the primary force and core strategy should be helping Haiti to rebuild their own country, with their own hands, and resist the temptation to do it for them. Often our own need to help gets in the way of truly understanding what is needed.  This may sound over simplified or inconsequential to many, but I assure you it is not. The rebuilding must be done in a way that unites and aligns citizens, government, businesses, investors, and aid organizations.  Without unity, there will be continued factions, hoarding, corruption, and minimal progress.  This monumental task requires a top-down strategy with a bottom-up implementation plan.  I have faith that with the assistance and guidance from the rest of the world, Haiti can rebuild itself and become much stronger than it was before the earthquake.

We must avoid simply jumping in with quick fixes and rebuilding everything back they way it was.  A master infrastructure plan that is comprehensive in its ability to connect the disparate parts of the country and support agriculture and other industries is critical.   It must take into account the reverse urban migration that is likely to occur as a result of the earthquake.  Many people will go back to the small towns and villages where they are from because they no longer have homes and jobs and have nowhere else to go.  The people in Haiti’s countryside are generally the poorest of the poor — why so many migrated to the big cities in the first place.  Supporting agriculture, tourism, and arts industries in the countryside will provide people the means to stay, to start over and to allow the country to grow in a more balanced way.

Agricultural Development Aid is a crucial component, and it will be required in a way never seen before.  With the traditional strategy of sending a disproportionate amount of food aid compared to Agricultural Development Aid, we generally set a country up for failure.   Sending only food aid does serve an immediate need and feeds people today, but it can also destroy what markets still exist.  Building chicken farms, developing farm land and building other food production facilities puts people in business so they can build up their own markets allows the aid to continue to churn through the economy and even increase economic activity over time.  Simply handing out food produced elsewhere and brought in through an outside distribution channel fills an immediate need, but if it is not balanced with other strategies eventually also feeds the equation of poverty.

Businesses must be created and financially supported so they can hire local employees and begin the re-building process.  Contracts must be structured with built-in profits from the rebuilding efforts that can be used to create further self-sustaining economic activity.  The banking industry must be supported such that the bankers can make enough profits to stay in business and grow while providing heavily subsidized loans for building businesses and rebuilding structures.  The World Bank and the IMF need to find creative ways to support industries and businesses directly as opposed to giving the lions share of funds directly to the government.  When businesses begin to grow and more money is invested in capitalistic endeavors, the government’s revenue will grow in sustainable ways and can it begin to rely less and less on foreign hand-outs.  The government should be orchestrating, aligning, and ensuring coordination of all efforts.  The government should be making master plans and ensuring long-term strategies are properly focused on growth.  Groups like Aimer Haiti, who can help build and mentor businesses, should be working with the government, the World Bank, the IMF, the US, foreign investors and domestic investors to develop completely new strategies for growth.  Aimer Haiti has already been working on such collaborative and creative economic development strategies since their launch in 2009 and for years before as concerned citizens and Haitian business owners.

Energy has been a growing issue for Haiti as its population rises, and is now even more critical.  Electricity has never been reliable and is often supplemented with large battery stores powered by diesel generators.  The good news is that technology has advanced enough that a country like Haiti can leap-frog many of the evolutionary steps in energy that the developed world could not.  It’s a matter of getting the brightest minds together, inside and outside of Haiti, to come up with the best solutions given the unique conditions of the country.  Before the earthquake Aimer Haiti was exploring the possibility of using small solar energy units in some of the poorest areas to provide light, refrigeration, and power. With refrigeration, people can store and sell perishable products such as produce and fish.  With power people who cannot read or write can begin the process of building an education base through radio and television.  Mobile phones can be powered and connect people to markets to sell their goods.

Solving the energy issue is also the key to stopping deforestation.  Until there is a reliable source of energy to replace charcoal, and until there are jobs and small businesses to give people a means to survive, deforestation will continue.  Deforestation causes rapid erosion, which leads to road and bridge destruction, and leaves the land unsuitable for farming ensuring the cycle of poverty continues.  The cutting down of trees does not happen because Haitians do not care about their land, it happens because it has become a means of survival for so many people.

The interconnectedness of all of these major issues in Haiti is another reason why getting the overall re-building strategy right is so key to its long-term future success.  Every solution and every single effort of aid and rebuilding should be viewed as an opportunity to put Haitians in businesses that will create jobs.  For example, the distribution of food and creation of helicopter landing sites, which is happening right now in Haiti, is a huge opportunity to employ people and allow them to feel a part of the solution and not a part of the problem.  There shouldn’t be such a stark line between those giving aid and those receiving aid.  This is an example of the change in thinking and the change in mindset that is needed to change the trajectory of how under-developed countries are assisted, particularly in times of need.

This type of re-building is not done from an office or over the phone, it is done by creating relationships on the ground, building businesses, one at a time, and helping families, one at a time.  It’s about doing, creating, uniting, and elating in each small success that both dedication and determination will bring.

History has proven time and again that capitalism and the building of a significant middle class are still the best ways to bring people out of poverty.   Before the earthquake, one of the first billboards you saw when you were leaving the Port au Prince airport, was the large unity triangle of Aimer Haiti, which of course translates to “Love Haiti” in English.  I hope it is still standing!

Posted in Courage, Haiti, economy, global, political, strategy, success | 3 Comments »

What Does the Debate on Climate Change Have to do with 21st Century Business Models and Global Economic Development?

Friday, December 18th, 2009

think create exp

The short answer is EVERYTHING. The long answer is what this post is all about.  These are three of today’s most pressing issues that are all too often discussed in a vacuum.  The best progress will be made at the margins where each of these pressing issues overlap.  When we begin to see them each as an integral component of global economic progress and prosperity and not discrete issues, much will be gained.

Perhaps the inclusion of 21st century business models is a surprise to many lumped in with the other two that get a lot more focus and media airtime, but please notice that I use the predication “21st century”.  If we want to do something about the ramped greed and selfish strategies that exist in many of today’s firms, then it must be added to the mix.  If created correctly, new and improved business models can be a large part of the solutions to climate change, global economic development, and their own perils of decreased employee morale and disgraced public opinion.

  • They all require new, passionate, and innovative solutions. In fact, we must assume that the very best solutions are not yet known.  Thus, the solution frameworks that are being bantered around today need to accommodate the unknown solutions of tomorrow.  It’s beyond out of the box thinking and into a world without the constraints of boxes of any sort.  It’s about unleashing the mass of untapped potential and productivity that lies dormant inside people and organizations around the world.
  • They are each integral to the success of the others. Slowing population growth in the developing world is one of the keys to avoiding a climate catastrophe down the road.  Economic development and the creation of a middle class is the most effective way to slow population growth in the developing world.  Private sector ingenuity is key to new technologies that will reverse the current trajectory of climate change as well as promote economic development in the developing world.
  • Alignment is key to effective solutions in each case. Businesses are learning how to align their shareholders, employees, customers, and the public in ways that will dramatically increase productivity.  When transparent alignment and partnerships are created between foreign aid, domestic and foreign private investment, and public money, global economic development will become significantly more efficient and effective.  Unless we properly align the big players in the world on climate change soon, it will likely suffer the same fate as the Green Revolution in Africa.

The most successful businesses models in the 21st century will be those that realize contributing to the creation of new markets is a winning long-term strategy, that focusing on something besides growth and profits is the key to engaging employees and winning the hearts of customers (yours as well as your competitors), and that how you decide to be in the world can be just as important, if not more important, than what you sell.

Too often when these topics are discussed in the media, there is too much focus (in my opinion) on the facts known today which narrows the conversation and too little focus on what we want to create.  In other words, discussions and potential solutions are being filtered based on what we know how to do today and not on whether or not they fit what it is we are trying to create.  All great movements start with an unadulterated view of what should be created, if anything is possible.  There isn’t much humans can’t do once they set their minds to it.  Some things take a few months and others a few generations.  The problem is that we sometimes lack the belief that it can be done, which ends up being the biggest thing that holds us back from succeeding.

Posted in business, creativity, economy, global, political, strategy | No Comments »

Looking for Profits in All the Wrong Places

Wednesday, December 2nd, 2009

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Investment comfort in the world of high finance all too often comes from fast profits in known and proven markets.  The never-ending game of offering higher profits at lower [apparent] risk to attract capital was certainly alive and well before the global economic crisis.  The question is, why does it appear to be coming back?  Didn’t we learn anything?

A global economic recession of epic proportions should have taught us a few lessons, but the days when CNN is glued to the US consumer expenditure figures as if it were the only barometer in existence, it seems it isn’t so.  Too much investment comfort will lead to not enough investment in the future and much greater economic turmoil down the road. For economies to flourish they need to grow, and we seem to continue to look for growth in places where the potential is quite low.

One of my mentors used to always say that if you aren’t feeling nervous and agitated about a deal, then it’s probably not a good one.  We were investing Goldman Sachs money, so the deals we worked on weren’t small and were often the first of their kind in that country.  A healthy amount of discomfort means we’re forging new territory.  Forging new territory in a world that primarily relies on capitalism to make the wheels go around is a good thing.  Running in the same old markets over and over and over again may move the wheel around, but it does little to make the wheel bigger.  In a world where we are slated to break 9 billion inhabitants in the next 40 years, we will definitely need a bigger wheel.

There is an inherent flaw in this mindset of investment comfort.  It stays in the world of what is known and it over-exploits markets such as US housing, US consumer, and luxury hotel.  While billions of dollars were being invested by countries all of the world in relatively finite (but comfortable) markets, much of the world’s potential new markets were being ignored.  I would argue that it is actually riskier to invest in false markets (backed by too much debt) that are unsustainable and maxed out on growth than it is to invest in creating completely new markets in the emerging and developing world that are backed by sustainable commerce.  It doesn’t feel riskier because it is known territory and feels comfortable, but from a purely economic system point of view it is, definitely riskier in the long run.

I believe this will be the biggest lesson of the 21st century for both the private and public sectors around the world.  During the 20th century, there was adequate growth potential in the population and quality of life in developed countries to support investments shrouded in the comfort of known markets.  This will not be the case for the 21st century.  The 21st century requires new investment models, new leaders, and new perspectives on globalization.

I predict that the very best Wall Street firms will turn from security selection and asset management in known markets to designing unique investment solutions that build entirely new markets around the globe.  They will bring public and private money together in ways that have never before been attempted.  The old model of trying to build nations through foreign aid and local (sometimes corrupt) governments alone clearly doesn’t work.  We need new models that forge new territory and challenge conventional thinking.  The potential and the opportunity are there.  The question is are we going to seize the moment and begin to look at the world differently?  Are we going to set future generations around the world up for success or for failure?

An uber-macro-global economic view of the world indicates that with stagnant population growth and an already high quality of life in much of the developed world, the economic progress and growth necessary to continue building global wealth must come in large part from under-developed countries.  In other words, the developed world is becoming over-saturated with capital.  The excess capital is creating false markets in many cases because new markets are unobtainable.  Companies are either stealing customers away from the competition or simply swallowing the competition because the markets are not big enough to support them all.  We also saw this play out over the five years prior to the recession where cheap debt allowed for an ever-increasing portion of returns to come from debt arbitrage as opposed to real investment fundamentals, which basically masked the issue.

Though, without the comforts of known markets, the developing world represents a significant potential for entirely new markets.  These new markets won’t get created overnight; however, they will require long term commitments and a lot of hard work.  The ones we are seeing pop up in China and India have been in progress for decades.  Creating entirely new markets requires both time and investment in infrastructure to create an environment where a middle class can flourish and grow.  Investors are starting to consider places like China and India, which is good, but they must realize that though the business mechanics are similar, the subtleties, relationships, and manner in which business is conducted is quite different.  There is still much work to be done in these markets and well as smaller ones that get far less attention but hold an equal amount of promise.

Success in creating new markets and building a middle class in nations void of one will require new and innovative ways of combining public global aid with both foreign and domestic private investment. Creating partnerships that promote food security, business investment, and job creation to jump-start capitalistic activity seems far more beneficial than the old ways of shoring up the local government and banks.  When businesses are sustained, tax collections will shore up the governments in much more sustainable ways, and citizens will gain more political power to avert corruption.  It’s about starting an economic cycle, not circumventing it.  Governments generally do not produce economic activity, but they do benefit greatly from it.  It starts with building business, not building governments.  We need an entirely new perspective on how we can work together to build markets and bring people out of poverty and increasing the quality of life of those who currently reside at the bottom of the pyramid.  This ultimately requires a broadened view of capitalism.  Creation of the haves and have-nots does not have to be a side effect of capitalism.  We can choose a different path for the future of our world.  This is what it means to start thinking like a global citizen.

Posted in business, economy, global, political, strategy | 1 Comment »

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