archive: December, 2009

Investment comfort in the world of high finance all too often comes from fast profits in known and proven markets.  The never-ending game of offering higher profits at lower [apparent] risk to attract capital was certainly alive and well before the global economic crisis.  The question is, why does it appear to be coming back?  Didn’t we learn anything?

A global economic recession of epic proportions should have taught us a few lessons, but the days when CNN is glued to the US consumer expenditure figures as if it were the only barometer in existence, it seems it isn’t so.  Too much investment comfort will lead to not enough investment in the future and much greater economic turmoil down the road. For economies to flourish they need to grow, and we seem to continue to look for growth in places where the potential is quite low.

One of my mentors used to always say that if you aren’t feeling nervous and agitated about a deal, then it’s probably not a good one.  We were investing Goldman Sachs money, so the deals we worked on weren’t small and were often the first of their kind in that country.  A healthy amount of discomfort means we’re forging new territory.  Forging new territory in a world that primarily relies on capitalism to make the wheels go around is a good thing.  Running in the same old markets over and over and over again may move the wheel around, but it does little to make the wheel bigger.  In a world where we are slated to break 9 billion inhabitants in the next 40 years, we will definitely need a bigger wheel.

There is an inherent flaw in this mindset of investment comfort.  It stays in the world of what is known and it over-exploits markets such as US housing, US consumer, and luxury hotel.  While billions of dollars were being invested by countries all of the world in relatively finite (but comfortable) markets, much of the world’s potential new markets were being ignored.  I would argue that it is actually riskier to invest in false markets (backed by too much debt) that are unsustainable and maxed out on growth than it is to invest in creating completely new markets in the emerging and developing world that are backed by sustainable commerce.  It doesn’t feel riskier because it is known territory and feels comfortable, but from a purely economic system point of view it is, definitely riskier in the long run.

I believe this will be the biggest lesson of the 21^st century for both the private and public sectors around the world.  During the 20^th century, there was adequate growth potential in the population and quality of life in developed countries to support investments shrouded in the comfort of known markets.  This will not be the case for the 21^st century.  The 21^st century requires new investment models, new leaders, and new perspectives on globalization.

I predict that the very best Wall Street firms will turn from security selection and asset management in known markets to designing unique investment solutions that build entirely new markets around the globe.  They will bring public and private money together in ways that have never before been attempted.  The old model of trying to build nations through foreign aid and local (sometimes corrupt) governments alone clearly doesn’t work.  We need new models that forge new territory and challenge conventional thinking.  The potential and the opportunity are there.  The question is are we going to seize the moment and begin to look at the world differently?  Are we going to set future generations around the world up for success or for failure?

An uber-macro-global economic view of the world indicates that with stagnant population growth and an already high quality of life in much of the developed world, the economic progress and growth necessary to continue building global wealth must come in large part from under-developed countries.  In other words, the developed world is becoming over-saturated with capital.  The excess capital is creating false markets in many cases because new markets are unobtainable.  Companies are either stealing customers away from the competition or simply swallowing the competition because the markets are not big enough to support them all.  We also saw this play out over the five years prior to the recession where cheap debt allowed for an ever-increasing portion of returns to come from debt arbitrage as opposed to real investment fundamentals, which basically masked the issue.

Though, without the comforts of known markets, the developing world represents a significant potential for entirely new markets.  These new markets won’t get created overnight; however, they will require long term commitments and a lot of hard work.  The ones we are seeing pop up in China and India have been in progress for decades.  Creating entirely new markets requires both time and investment in infrastructure to create an environment where a middle class can flourish and grow.  Investors are starting to consider places like China and India, which is good, but they must realize that though the business mechanics are similar, the subtleties, relationships, and manner in which business is conducted is quite different.  There is still much work to be done in these markets and well as smaller ones that get far less attention but hold an equal amount of promise.

Success in creating new markets and building a middle class in nations void of one will require new and innovative ways of combining public global aid with both foreign and domestic private investment. Creating partnerships that promote food security, business investment, and job creation to jump-start capitalistic activity seems far more beneficial than the old ways of shoring up the local government and banks.  When businesses are sustained, tax collections will shore up the governments in much more sustainable ways, and citizens will gain more political power to avert corruption.  It’s about starting an economic cycle, not circumventing it.  Governments generally do not produce economic activity, but they do benefit greatly from it.  It starts with building business, not building governments.  We need an entirely new perspective on how we can work together to build markets and bring people out of poverty and increasing the quality of life of those who currently reside at the bottom of the pyramid.  This ultimately requires a broadened view of capitalism.  Creation of the haves and have-nots does not have to be a side effect of capitalism.  We can choose a different path for the future of our world.  This is what it means to start thinking like a global citizen.